Missouri Spring Freeze Event and Crop Loss Analysis for the Years 1982-2015

Abstract

A spring freeze is an unexpected freeze event occurring in late spring that can result in severe domestic crop loss. These events coincide with seasonal weather conditions that promote early crop development. As a consequence, early growth is most susceptible to freeze damage. Spring temperature fluctuations pose significant threat to crop yield and growth, when compared to onsistently cold springtime temperatures. In this study, a thirty-four-year span (1982 to 2015) of historical climate, agricultural and crop insurance data for Missouri was analyzed. Risk analysis was performed for each Missouri county to determine statistical relationships between crop loss and springtime warm-cold temperature fluctuations. Statewide, several regions were identified as having an increased susceptibility to freeze events, with Lafayette County emerging as the state’s leading county in agricultural losses due to freeze events. The window for peak freeze damage for Lafayette County was identified as the last week of March through the first week of April. The years 1985, 1996 and 2007 stood apart in the dataset as they correspond to the highest crop damages on record. Each of these years also corresponds to a doubling of severity in the reported crop losses.