Predicting the Movement of Dentistry Students using Markov Chain

Abstract

Developing and increasing the effectiveness of any system (university system) depends on continuous evaluation and improvement using quantitative methods based on quantitative measurement and efficient mathematical models that can predict the future of the system, discover its improvement requirements and increase its effectiveness. This study is an application of the Stochastics Markov Process for students of the College of Dentistry at Ibb University. It was carried out by building a model for the movement (transition) of student’s cohorts in the college during the years of study and predicting the average times spent by the student until obtaining a degree in his/her track, as well as predicting the number of students expected to graduate for the post-study period. The study found that the average time for obtaining a bachelor's degree (graduation) is ordinary for the total students, although the average times for male students are less than the average times for female students.